Pacos Ferreira 2–0 Famalicao: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Famalicao

Nuno Santos 50'

Lucas Silva 49'

8/8/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 1Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Pacos Ferreira35%

×Draw27%

Famalicao39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchFamalicao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Pacos Ferreira

1.23

Famalicao

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 118 away

1.03

creates per match

1.20

1.43

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.03

Famalicao

1.20

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.43

Famalicao

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Famalicao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

61%

Pacos Ferreira or Famalicao

73%

Draw or Famalicao

65%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

15%

Famalicao wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

71%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

35%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

13%

Famalicao 1+ goals

73%

Famalicao 2+ goals

38%

Famalicao 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

47%

Famalicao (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.03 + Famalicao defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Famalicao attack 1.20 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

35%

level

27%

Famalicao scores more

39%

Famalicao at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Denílson

Pacos Ferreira · F

8.0

Match Events

49'

Lucas Silva↳ Antunes

50'

Nuno Santos↳ Denílson

60'

Pablo← Geovani

60'

André Ricardo← João Neto

62'

Zé Uilton← J. Delgado

62'

Hélder Ferreira← Lucas Silva

76'

Matchoi Djaló← Nuno Santos

77'

L. Ofori← David Tavares

77'

C. Verdonk← Bruno Rodrigues

78'

81'

82'

85'

87'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PacosFamalicao

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots11

6Corners3

33Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots11

3On Target2

10Off Target7

7Blocked2

17Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

455Total Passes335

381Accurate Passes270

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

33Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3