Famalicao 0–0 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pacos Ferreira

1/16/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Famalicao46%

×Draw27%

Pacos Ferreira27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.01

Famalicao

1.42

Pacos Ferreira

1.01

Famalicao creates 41% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 67 away

1.32

creates per match

0.90

1.13

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Famalicao

1.32

Pacos Ferreira

0.90

allows per match

Famalicao

1.13

Pacos Ferreira

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

73%

Famalicao or Pacos Ferreira

73%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

54%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

23%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

76%

Famalicao 2+ goals

41%

Famalicao 3+ goals

17%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

64%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

27%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

63%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.13 · 116 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.32 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Famalicao defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Famalicao scores more

46%

level

27%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

27%

Famalicao at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

André Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira · G

8.5

Match Events

26'

Alexandre Penetra

33'

Maracás

60'

Bruno Rodrigues← Pedro Marques

64'

M. Diaby← Hélder Ferreira

64'

João Pedro← Nuno Santos

67'

Alex Nascimento

69'

Alexandre Penetra

69'

Alexandre Penetra

73'

H. De La Fuente← Marcos Paulo

74'

Mohamed Diaby

77'

Stephen Eustáquio

80'

Matchoi Djaló← Luíz Carlos

90+3'

Dylan Batubinsika

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FamalicaoPacos

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots9

2Corners8

15Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target4

0Blocked2

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

358Total Passes511

283Accurate Passes436

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls21

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2