P-Iirot 0–1 Inter Turku II: Result & Stats

P-Iirot

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Turku II

7/26/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 20Äijänsuon Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

P-Iirot30%

×Draw21%

Inter Turku II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

P-IirotExpected goals in this matchInter Turku II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.09

P-Iirot

1.63

Inter Turku II

2.09

Inter Turku II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 10 away

1.95

creates per match

2.80

1.38

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

P-Iirot

1.95

Inter Turku II

2.80

allows per match

P-Iirot

1.38

Inter Turku II

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

P-Iirot ↓

Inter Turku II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

P-Iirot or draw

52%

P-Iirot or Inter Turku II

79%

Draw or Inter Turku II

70%

Winning margin

P-Iirot wins by 2+

15%

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals

80%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

48%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

22%

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

88%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

62%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

39%

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

P-Iirot at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

P-Iirot attack 1.95 + Inter Turku II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Inter Turku II attack 2.80 + P-Iirot defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

P-Iirot scores more

30%

level

21%

Inter Turku II scores more

48%

Inter Turku II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff