Inter Turku II 3–2 P-Iirot: Result & Stats

Inter Turku II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

P-Iirot

5/2/2022

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundTurku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter Turku II17%

×Draw16%

P-Iirot66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Turku IIExpected goals in this matchP-Iirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.90

Inter Turku II

1.46

P-Iirot

2.90

P-Iirot creates 99% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

4.40

1.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Inter Turku II

1.80

P-Iirot

4.40

allows per match

Inter Turku II

1.40

P-Iirot

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

P-Iirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw

34%

Inter Turku II or P-Iirot

84%

Draw or P-Iirot

83%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

7%

P-Iirot wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

77%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

43%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

18%

P-Iirot 1+ goals

94%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

78%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

21%

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 1.80 + P-Iirot defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

P-Iirot attack 4.40 + Inter Turku II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Inter Turku II scores more

17%

level

16%

P-Iirot scores more

66%

P-Iirot at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff