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Inter Turku II vs P-Iirot — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
P-Iirot
P-Iirot
5/26/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 9Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inter Turku II72%
×Draw15%
P-Iirot14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku II
3.17
P-Iirot
1.38

Inter Turku II creates 130% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 56 away

creates per match

Inter Turku II
4.30
P-Iirot
1.25

allows per match

Inter Turku II
1.50
P-Iirot
2.04

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par
P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

P-Iirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw
86%
Inter Turku II or P-Iirot
85%
Draw or P-Iirot
28%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+
52%
P-Iirot wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals
96%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
82%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
60%
P-Iirot 1+ goals
75%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
40%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
84%
P-Iirot (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 4.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.04 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 4.30 + P-Iirot defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 3.17

P-Iirot attack 1.25 + Inter Turku II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Inter Turku II scores more
72%
level
15%
P-Iirot scores more
14%

Inter Turku II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku II vs P-Iirot

Inter Turku II beat P-Iirot 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.