Oxford United 1–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

L. Harris 28'

M. Whittaker 54'

11/22/2025

Championship · Round 16Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Oxford United34%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.29

Oxford United

1.20

Middlesbrough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 65 away

1.16

creates per match

1.39

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Oxford United

1.16

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Oxford United

1.20

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.10scores more

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

61%

Oxford United or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

66%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

14%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

70%

Oxford United 2+ goals

34%

Oxford United 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

47%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 39 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.16 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oxford United scores more

34%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

L. Harris

Oxford United · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

Luke Harris

28'

L. Harris↳ J. Currie

34'

Alan Browne

40'

Brian De Keersmaecker

42'

W. Vaulks← C. Brannagan

46'

S. Silvera← M. Targett

54'

M. Whittaker↳ C. Brittain

62'

R. McGree← A. Morris

62'

M. K. Sene← D. Burgzorg

63'

M. Harris← L. Harris

63'

S. Mills← P. Placheta

63'

F. Krastev← T. Goodrham

77'

O. ter Haar Romeny← W. Lankshear

83'

Mark Harris

87'

Mamadou Kaly Sene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordMiddlesbrough

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots19

0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.06

1Corners8

16Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots19

2On Target3

4Off Target7

3Blocked9

3Inside Box11

6Outside Box8

Passing

30%Possession70%

259Total Passes578

176Accurate Passes486

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2