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Oxford United vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
D. Scarlett 72'
G. Leigh 24'
F. Azaz 83', 42'
T. Conway 80'
E. Latte Lath 49', 45', 37' (pen)
11/23/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Oxford United34%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.20
Middlesbrough
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 65 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.16
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Oxford United
1.20
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Oxford United+0.10scores more
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
61%
Oxford United or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
66%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
14%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
70%
Oxford United 2+ goals
34%
Oxford United 3+ goals
12%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
72%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
37%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
47%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 39 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.16 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oxford United scores more
34%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
F. AzazMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · M
9.6

Match Events

24'
G. Leigh
27'
Finn Azaz
35'
Elliott Moore
37'
E. Latte LathPenalty
42'
F. Azaz↳ E. Latte Lath
45'
E. Latte Lath↳ F. Azaz
49'
E. Latte Lath↳ F. Azaz
52'
D. Scarlett← M. Harris
53'
P. Płacheta← E. Moore
60'
Neto Borges
62'
M. Forss← B. Doak
62'
T. Conway← E. Latte Lath
64'
M. Phillips← Ruben Rodrigues
72'
J. McEachran← C. Brannagan
72'
D. Scarlett↳ T. Goodrham
73'
I. El Mizouni← W. Vaulks
75'
R. McGree← D. Burgzorg
80'
T. Conway↳ R. McGree
83'
F. Azaz
85'
M. Hamilton← F. Azaz
85'
A. Dijksteel← L. Ayling
90+3'
George Edmundson

Possession

36%Oxford

Shots

11Oxford

Pass accuracy

49%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordMiddlesbrough
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots16
0.58Expected Goals (xG)2.89
6Corners9
9Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots16
7On Target12
4Off Target4
0Blocked0
6Inside Box12
5Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
331Total Passes582
270Accurate Passes496
82%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
-0.66Goals Prevented-0.66
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Championship: Oxford United 2–6 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Oxford United 6-2 in Championship on November 23, 2024.

Goals: G. Leigh (24'), E. Latte Lath (37' pen, 45', 49'), F. Azaz (42', 83'), D. Scarlett (72'), T. Conway (80').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.