Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs Oxford United — League #45 2026

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
C. Stuani 86'
R. Gestede 34'
G. Leadbitter 26' (pen)
Toni Martínez 65'
C. Maguire 64'
2/18/2017League #45League #45 · 5th RoundRiverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Middlesbrough39%
×Draw25%
Oxford United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.50
Oxford United
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.00
Oxford United
1.33

allows per match

Middlesbrough
1.50
Oxford United
2.00

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
64%
Middlesbrough or Oxford United
75%
Draw or Oxford United
61%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
19%
Oxford United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
78%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
44%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
19%
Oxford United 1+ goals
76%
Oxford United 2+ goals
41%
Oxford United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
52%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.00 + Oxford United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oxford United attack 1.33 + Middlesbrough defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
39%
level
25%
Oxford United scores more
36%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. LeadbitterMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · M
8.1

Match Events

26'
G. LeadbitterPenalty
34'
R. Gestede
62'
Daniel Ayala
64'
C. Maguire
65'
Toni Martínez
67'
C. McAleny← K. Hemmings
71'
Calum Chambers
72'
C. Stuani← Adama Traoré
72'
G. Ramírez← V. Fischer
76'
Ryan Ledson
85'
L. Sercombe← Toni Martínez
86'
Álvaro Negredo← R. Gestede
86'
C. Stuani↳ Álvaro Negredo
90'
Álvaro Negredo
90'
Marvin Johnson

Possession

52%Middlesbrough

Shots

21Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

53%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughOxford
Overview
52%Possession48%
21Total Shots12
4Corners9
19Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots12
8On Target5
9Off Target4
4Blocked3
12Inside Box8
9Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
364Total Passes332
267Accurate Passes211
73%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Oxford United

Middlesbrough beat Oxford United 3-2 in League #45 on February 18, 2017.

Goals: G. Leadbitter (26' pen), R. Gestede (34'), C. Maguire (64'), Toni Martínez (65'), C. Stuani (86').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (52%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.