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Oxford United vs Leyton Orient — League #46 2026

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
M. Taylor 84'
S. Findlay 66'
K. Joseph 57'
C. Brannagan 45+3'
J. Mousinho 4'
8/30/2022League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 3The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oxford United62%
×Draw20%
Leyton Orient18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
2.17
Leyton Orient
1.08

Oxford United creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oxford United
2.33
Leyton Orient
1.50

allows per match

Oxford United
0.67
Leyton Orient
2.00

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
82%
Oxford United or Leyton Orient
80%
Draw or Leyton Orient
38%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
39%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
89%
Oxford United 2+ goals
64%
Oxford United 3+ goals
36%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
66%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
29%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
77%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 2.33 + Leyton Orient defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Leyton Orient attack 1.50 + Oxford United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oxford United scores more
62%
level
20%
Leyton Orient scores more
18%

Oxford United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. TaylorOxford UnitedOxford United · F
8.9

Match Events

4'
J. Mousinho↳ B. Bodin
45+3'
C. Brannagan↳ L. Bate
57'
K. Joseph↳ M. Taylor
63'
S. Spasov← K. Joseph
64'
Álex Gorrín← M. McGuane
64'
T. Goodrham← J. Henry
66'
I. El Mizouni← C. Clay
66'
S. Findlay↳ B. Bodin
67'
T. James← C. Wood
70'
R. Sotiriou
74'
A. Drinan← R. Sotiriou
78'
J. Golding← S. Long
81'
G. O'Donkor← C. Brannagan
84'
M. Taylor

Possession

53%Oxford

Shots

20Oxford

Pass accuracy

51%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordLeyton
Overview
53%Possession47%
20Total Shots9
5Corners5
12Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots9
9On Target4
6Off Target3
5Blocked2
15Inside Box8
5Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
463Total Passes413
383Accurate Passes331
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Leyton Orient

Oxford United beat Leyton Orient 5-0 in League #46 on August 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Mousinho (4'), C. Brannagan (45+3'), K. Joseph (57'), S. Findlay (66'), M. Taylor (84').

Oxford United controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.