Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
2/24/2024League OneLeague One · Round 35The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Oxford United45%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.55
Leyton Orient
1.21

Oxford United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 71 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.69
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Oxford United
1.10
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
70%
Oxford United or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
23%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
79%
Oxford United 2+ goals
46%
Oxford United 3+ goals
20%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
70%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
34%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
60%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more
45%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Oxford United 2-1 in League One on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.