Leyton Orient 2–3 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Oxford United

11/11/2023

League One · Round 17Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Leyton Orient39%

×Draw26%

Oxford United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.35

Oxford United

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 137 away

1.31

creates per match

1.36

1.15

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.15

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

66%

Leyton Orient or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Oxford United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

39%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

36%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

53%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

39%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

34%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff