Oxford United 2–3 Coventry: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

E. Moore 62'

O. Romeny 53'

T. Sakamoto 71'

E. Mason-Clark 58'

J. Rudoni 7'

3/1/2025

Championship · Round 35The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Oxford United34%

×Draw26%

Coventry40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.37

Oxford United

1.23

Coventry

1.37

Coventry creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

1.21

creates per match

1.49

1.25

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Oxford United

1.21

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Oxford United

1.25

Coventry

1.24

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.19scores more

Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

60%

Oxford United or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

66%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

14%

Coventry wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

35%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

75%

Coventry 2+ goals

40%

Coventry 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

46%

Coventry (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.21 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Coventry attack 1.49 + Oxford United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxford United scores more

34%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Sakamoto

Coventry · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

J. Rudoni↳ T. Sakamoto

18'

41'

45+4'

45+5'

53'

O. Romeny↳ P. Płacheta

57'

Ole Romeny

58'

E. Mason-Clark

62'

E. Moore↳ T. Goodrham

67'

Ellis SimmsMissed penalty

71'

T. Sakamoto↳ J. Bidwell

74'

S. Mills← P. Płacheta

74'

A. Matos← W. Vaulks

74'

H. Wright← E. Simms

82'

H. ter Avest← P. Kioso

82'

M. Phillips← M. Harris

87'

Liam Kitching

89'

Oliver Dovin

90'

S. Dembélé← O. Romeny

90'

J. Allen← J. Eccles

90'

J. Paterson← E. Mason-Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordCoventry

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots18

1.09Expected Goals (xG)2.64

3Corners11

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target6

4Off Target5

2Blocked7

8Inside Box16

2Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

343Total Passes351

260Accurate Passes276

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Coventry

Coventry beat Oxford United 3-2 in Championship on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Rudoni (7'), O. Romeny (53'), E. Mason-Clark (58'), E. Moore (62'), T. Sakamoto (71').

Coventry controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford United vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Coventry