Coventry 0–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oxford United

2/7/2026

Championship · Round 31Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Coventry56%

×Draw24%

Oxford United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.97

Coventry

1.75

Oxford United

0.97

Coventry creates 80% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Oxford United

1.66

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Oxford United+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

79%

Coventry or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

44%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

31%

Oxford United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

83%

Coventry 2+ goals

52%

Coventry 3+ goals

25%

Oxford United 1+ goals

62%

Oxford United 2+ goals

25%

Oxford United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

73%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Oxford United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Coventry scores more

56%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

21%

Coventry at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Cumming

Oxford United · G

8.2

Match Events

34'

41'

45'

49'

57'

57'

W. Lankshear← P. Placheta

59'

67'

70'

71'

71'

O. ter Haar Romeny← M. Peart-Harris

73'

77'

77'

81'

86'

B. Davies← R. Roosken

89'

Ole Romeny

90'

Yang Min-Hyuk← R. Esse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryOxford

Overview

74%Possession26%

24Total Shots4

2.29Expected Goals (xG)0.12

10Corners0

7Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots4

5On Target1

13Off Target3

6Blocked1

17Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

74%Possession26%

540Total Passes197

460Accurate Passes115

85%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

1.20Goals Prevented1.20

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards1

4Offsides3