Coventry 3–2 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Oxford United

H. Wright 90+6', 15'

M. van Ewijk 31'

M. Harris 55'

C. Brown 22'

8/16/2024

Championship · Round 2The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Coventry56%

×Draw24%

Oxford United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.97

Coventry

1.75

Oxford United

0.97

Coventry creates 80% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Oxford United

1.66

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Oxford United+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

79%

Coventry or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

44%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

31%

Oxford United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

83%

Coventry 2+ goals

52%

Coventry 3+ goals

25%

Oxford United 1+ goals

62%

Oxford United 2+ goals

25%

Oxford United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

73%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Oxford United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Coventry scores more

56%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

21%

Coventry at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Wright

Coventry · M

9.2

Match Events

15'

H. Wright↳ M. van Ewijk

16'

Joe Bennett

22'

C. Brown

31'

M. van Ewijk↳ E. Simms

55'

M. Harris↳ Ruben Rodrigues

57'

M. Phillips← P. Płacheta

57'

I. El Mizouni← Ruben Rodrigues

59'

Tyler Goodrham

70'

B. Thomas-Asante← E. Simms

73'

E. Mason-Clark← T. Sakamoto

78'

L. Sibley← T. Goodrham

80'

J. Dasilva← J. Bidwell

81'

K. Palmer← V. Torp

90'

Mark Harris

90'

D. Scarlett← M. Harris

90+6'

H. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryOxford

Overview

64%Possession36%

26Total Shots7

2.95Expected Goals (xG)0.96

13Corners1

9Fouls7

Shots

26Total Shots7

10On Target2

8Off Target2

8Blocked3

18Inside Box7

8Outside Box0

Passing

64%Possession36%

537Total Passes325

461Accurate Passes260

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

1.05Goals Prevented1.05

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Championship: Coventry 3–2 Oxford United

Coventry beat Oxford United 3-2 in Championship on August 16, 2024.

Goals: H. Wright (15', 90+6'), C. Brown (22'), M. van Ewijk (31'), M. Harris (55').

Coventry controlled possession (64%) and registered 26 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.

Coventry vs Oxford United — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Coventry 3–2 Oxford United