Oxford United 3–3 Coventry: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

F. Dabo 90+4' (OG), 85' (OG)

J. Mackie 64'

C. O'Hare 90+1'

M. Godden 56'

Z. Westbrooke 35'

8/31/2019

League One · Round 6The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw25%

Coventry30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.23

Oxford United

1.55

Coventry

1.23

Oxford United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 44 away

1.70

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Coventry

1.32

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Coventry

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

70%

Oxford United or Coventry

75%

Draw or Coventry

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

22%

Coventry wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

46%

Oxford United 3+ goals

20%

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

35%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Coventry (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Coventry attack 1.32 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

25%

Coventry scores more

30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Brannagan

Oxford United · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

35'

41'

56'

62'

64'

64'

S. Baptiste← A. Forde

64'

J. Mackie↳ R. Dickie

67'

Josh Ruffels

74'

Zain Westbrooke

75'

C. O'Hare← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

85'

F. DaboOwn goal

89'

T. Watson← S. McCallum

90'

Jamie Mackie

90+9'

S. Long← J. Ruffles

90+3'

K. McFadzean← W. Jobello

90+1'

C. O'Hare↳ J. Shipley

90+4'

F. DaboOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordCoventry

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots9

14Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target5

10Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

443Total Passes321

346Accurate Passes222

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

League One: Oxford United 3–3 Coventry

Oxford United and Coventry drew 3-3 in League One on August 31, 2019.

Goals: Z. Westbrooke (35'), M. Godden (56'), J. Mackie (64'), F. Dabo (85' o.g., 90+4' o.g.), C. O'Hare (90+1').

Oxford United controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.

Oxford United vs Coventry — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Oxford United 3–3 Coventry