Oxford United 1–2 Coventry: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

J. Obika 86'

C. Chaplin 81' (pen)

J. Mousinho 64' (OG)

9/9/2018

League One · Round 7Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw25%

Coventry30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.23

Oxford United

1.55

Coventry

1.23

Oxford United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 44 away

1.70

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Coventry

1.32

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Coventry

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

70%

Oxford United or Coventry

75%

Draw or Coventry

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

22%

Coventry wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

46%

Oxford United 3+ goals

20%

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

35%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Coventry (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Coventry attack 1.32 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

25%

Coventry scores more

30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Jordan Shipley

13'

Junior Brown

45'

Ricky Holmes

46'

D. Sterling← J. Grimmer

64'

J. MousinhoOwn goal

71'

J. Obika← M. Browne

81'

C. ChaplinPenalty

83'

L. Garbutt← S. Baptiste

83'

S. Smith← J. Mackie

83'

A. Ogogo← C. Chaplin

83'

T. Andreu← J. Shipley

86'

J. Obika↳ L. Garbutt

87'

Jonson Clarke-Harris

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OxfordCoventry

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots6

5Corners1

19Fouls20

Shots

6Total Shots6

2On Target4

4Off Target2

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls20

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3