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Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
C. Edwards 77'
A. Begic 57', 8'
A. Yasin 44'
L. Astvald 20'
5/31/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ostersunds FK33%
×Draw22%
Orebro SK45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.66
Orebro SK
1.97

Orebro SK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.31
Orebro SK
1.23

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
2.71
Orebro SK
2.01

finishing

Ostersunds FK-0.11scores less
Orebro SK-0.73scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
55%
Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK
78%
Draw or Orebro SK
67%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
16%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
81%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
49%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
23%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
86%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
58%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
42%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Orebro SK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.66

Orebro SK attack 1.23 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
33%
level
22%
Orebro SK scores more
45%

Orebro SK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Begic↳ Y. Adjoumani
20'
L. Astvald↳ C. Redenstrand
44'
A. Yasin↳ C. Redenstrand
57'
A. Begic↳ D. Miljanovic
58'
E. Hrastovina← H. Dana
60'
Mario Palomino Delgado
71'
Abodi Qasem
71'
A. Ghasem← F. Wahlstrom
77'
C. Edwards↳ S. Marklund
78'
E. Navassardian← M. Palomino
78'
M. Oluwayemi← E. Ozkan
80'
D. Salihovic← E. Ibrahimbegovic
80'
K. Dickson← A. Yasin
85'
D. Molls← A. Begic
90+6'
Melker Uppenberg

Possession

55%Ostersunds

Statistics

OstersundsOrebro
Overview
55%Possession45%
7Corners0
Shots
7On Target2
7Off Target1
0Blocked0
Passing
55%Possession45%
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Superettan: Ostersunds FK 3–2 Orebro SK

Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 3-2 in Superettan on May 31, 2026.

Goals: A. Begic (8', 57'), L. Astvald (20'), A. Yasin (44'), C. Edwards (77').

Ostersunds FK dominated possession with 55% of the ball.

The match was played at Jamtkraft Arena in Ostersund.