Ostersunds FK 0–0 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orebro SK

7/13/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostersunds FK30%

×Draw26%

Orebro SK44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.50

Ostersunds FK

1.19

Orebro SK

1.50

Orebro SK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.00

Orebro SK

1.50

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.50

Orebro SK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

56%

Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK

74%

Draw or Orebro SK

70%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

12%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

70%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

33%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

12%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

78%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

44%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

40%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.00 + Orebro SK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

30%

level

26%

Orebro SK scores more

44%

Orebro SK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ostersunds

Orebro

1

5

4

32

2

16

24

12

9

17

19

30

2

23

5

4

16

22

6

10

26

11

Manager: Kiarash Livani

Ostersunds FK substitutes

Croon27Ghanoum18Bonde8Brendon20Oluwayemi15Granstrom19Bawa39Ramberg29Worke21Navassardian9Kirby

Manager: Patrik Haginge

Orebro SK substitutes

Ojrzynski3Kack6Bajrovic7Andersson8Azizovic10Tipura20Swartling22Shlimon

Friendlies Clubs: Ostersunds FK 0–0 Orebro SK

Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2025.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.

Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Ostersunds FK 0–0 Orebro SK