Ostersunds FK 3–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orebro SK

N. Perry 75'

P. Bonde 51'

S. Marklund 27'

K. Holmberg 58'

5/24/2025

Superettan · Round 10Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ostersunds FK33%

×Draw22%

Orebro SK45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.97

Ostersunds FK

1.66

Orebro SK

1.97

Orebro SK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

2.71

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.31

Orebro SK

1.23

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

2.71

Orebro SK

2.01

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

Ostersunds FK-0.11scores less

Orebro SK-0.73scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

55%

Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK

78%

Draw or Orebro SK

67%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

16%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

81%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

49%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

23%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

86%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

58%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

42%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Orebro SK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.66

Orebro SK attack 1.23 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

33%

level

22%

Orebro SK scores more

45%

Orebro SK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

A. Origi

Ostersunds FK · G

8.5

Match Events

27'

S. Marklund↳ T. Johansson

46'

E. Andersson← L. Shlimon

51'

P. Bonde↳ T. Johansson

58'

K. Holmberg↳ E. McCue

63'

O. Kack← L. Alperud

63'

S. Tipura← A. Ghasem

63'

B. Asumang← E. Hrastovina

75'

N. Perry↳ S. Anyanwu

76'

Z. Ghanoum← T. Johansson

86'

C. Swartling← A. Yakoub

88'

M. Oluwayemi← N. Perry

89'

M. Bawa← A. Bonnah

89'

Y. Adjoumani← A. Edqvist

90+3'

James Kirby

90+7'

Hampus Söderstrom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersundsOrebro

Overview

53%Possession47%

22Total Shots16

2.02Expected Goals (xG)2.88

4Corners6

10Fouls6

Shots

22Total Shots16

8On Target8

7Off Target3

7Blocked5

12Inside Box12

10Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

466Total Passes437

377Accurate Passes346

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK

Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 3-1 in Superettan on May 24, 2025.

Goals: S. Marklund (27'), P. Bonde (51'), K. Holmberg (58'), N. Perry (75').

Ostersunds FK controlled possession (53%) and registered 22 shots to 16.

The match was played at Jamtkraft Arena in Ostersund.

Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK