Ostersunds FK 0–1 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mjallby AIF

7/6/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 6Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ostersunds FK32%

×Draw26%

Mjallby AIF42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Ostersunds FK

1.21

Mjallby AIF

1.42

Mjallby AIF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 97 away

1.30

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.30

Mjallby AIF

1.33

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.50

Mjallby AIF

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

58%

Ostersunds FK or Mjallby AIF

74%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

68%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

13%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

70%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

34%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

12%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

76%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

41%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

43%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

32%

level

26%

Mjallby AIF scores more

42%

Mjallby AIF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff