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Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK — Allsvenskan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
5/9/2021AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 5Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mjallby AIF53%
×Draw25%
Ostersunds FK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.60
Ostersunds FK
0.95

Mjallby AIF creates 68% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.44
Ostersunds FK
0.85

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.04
Ostersunds FK
1.77

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
78%
Mjallby AIF or Ostersunds FK
75%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
47%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
28%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
80%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
47%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
22%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
61%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
25%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
70%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.44 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
53%
level
25%
Ostersunds FK scores more
22%

Mjallby AIF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK

Mjallby AIF beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 in Allsvenskan on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.