Mjallby AIF 0–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ostersunds FK

3/7/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Strandvallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mjallby AIF48%

×Draw26%

Ostersunds FK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.06

Mjallby AIF

1.53

Ostersunds FK

1.06

Mjallby AIF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

2.00

creates per match

1.31

0.81

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

2.00

Ostersunds FK

1.31

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.81

Ostersunds FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

74%

Mjallby AIF or Ostersunds FK

74%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

52%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

24%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

78%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

45%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

20%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

65%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

29%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

65%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

48%

level

26%

Ostersunds FK scores more

26%

Mjallby AIF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff