Ostersunds FK 0–0 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

8/30/2025

Superettan · Round 21Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ostersunds FK36%

×Draw25%

Kalmar FF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.48

Ostersunds FK

1.41

Kalmar FF

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.69

creates per match

1.06

1.90

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.69

Kalmar FF

1.06

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.90

Kalmar FF

1.12

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Ostersunds FK-0.12scores less

Kalmar FF+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

61%

Ostersunds FK or Kalmar FF

75%

Draw or Kalmar FF

64%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

17%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

76%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

41%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

17%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

77%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

43%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

48%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.90 · 14 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.69 + Kalmar FF defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kalmar FF attack 1.06 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

36%

level

25%

Kalmar FF scores more

39%

Kalmar FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Motaraghebjafarpour← R. Gojani

46'

T. Kalinauskas← S. Ylatupa

68'

Lars Saetra

74'

A. Olusanya← A. Magashy

74'

A. Keita← R. Sjostedt

79'

Ahmed Bonnah

80'

Ahmed Bonnah

80'

Ahmed Bonnah

82'

J. Hopcutt← A. Edqvist

82'

M. Stolt← Chukwuemeka Emeka

83'

M. Oluwayemi← A. Bonnah

90+4'

J. Kirby← J. Ali

Ostersunds4-3-3

Kalmar4-4-2

10

Jebara

70

▼

Emeka

19

▼

Ylatupa

23

▼

Gojani

21

▼

5

33

39

6

▼

4

30

1

28

5

23

2

22

▼

15

10

25

14

▼

Ali

6

▼

Edqvist

Manager: Kiarash Livani

82'▲J. Hopcutt←▼A. Edqvist

83'▲M. Oluwayemi←▼A. Bonnah

90+4'▲J. Kirby←▼J. Ali

Ostersunds FK substitutes

32Croon4Johansson9Kirby11Hopcutt20Oluwayemi26Morfelt27Ghanoum

Manager: Toni Koskela

8'▲A. Motaraghebjafarpour←▼R. Gojani

46'▲T. Kalinauskas←▼S. Ylatupa

74'▲A. Olusanya←▼A. Magashy

74'▲A. Keita←▼R. Sjostedt

82'▲M. Stolt←▼Chukwuemeka Emeka

Kalmar FF substitutes

7Atanga32Andersson11Olusanya37Kalinauskas9Stolt47Keita26Motaraghebjafarpour