Kalmar FF 0–0 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ostersunds FK

4/12/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 1Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kalmar FF47%

×Draw27%

Ostersunds FK27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Kalmar FF

1.44

Ostersunds FK

1.02

Kalmar FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 61 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

1.21

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Kalmar FF

1.14

Ostersunds FK

0.84

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.21

Ostersunds FK

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

73%

Kalmar FF or Ostersunds FK

73%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

53%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

23%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

76%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

42%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

18%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

64%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

27%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

64%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 115 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.14 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ostersunds FK attack 0.84 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

47%

level

27%

Ostersunds FK scores more

27%

Kalmar FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Keita

Ostersunds FK · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

F. Arhin← S. Mensiro

30'

Elias Olsson

45'

O. Berg← J. Ring

54'

Francis Jno-Baptiste

63'

N. Perry← F. Jno-Baptiste

67'

N. Shamoun← I. Magnusson

73'

S. Kroon← I. Ssewankambo

81'

H. Löfkvist← L. Sætra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarOstersunds

Overview

66%Possession34%

12Total Shots4

10Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots4

3On Target0

3Off Target3

6Blocked1

9Inside Box1

3Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

684Total Passes350

582Accurate Passes260

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides3