Kalmar FF 2–0 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ostersunds FK

S. Ylatupa 59'

S. Overby 50'

4/20/2025

Superettan · Round 4Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kalmar FF59%

×Draw21%

Ostersunds FK21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.15

Kalmar FF

2.08

Ostersunds FK

1.15

Kalmar FF creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

2.27

creates per match

1.25

1.05

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Kalmar FF

2.27

Ostersunds FK

1.25

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.05

Ostersunds FK

1.90

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Kalmar FF-0.44scores less

Ostersunds FK-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

79%

Kalmar FF or Ostersunds FK

79%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

41%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

36%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

87%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

61%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

34%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

68%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

32%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

74%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 6 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.27 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ostersunds FK attack 1.25 + Kalmar FF defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

59%

level

21%

Ostersunds FK scores more

21%

Kalmar FF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. Overby

Kalmar FF · D

8.0

Match Events

24'

Philip Bonde

46'

C. Jebara← R. Jansson

50'

S. Overby↳ C. Jebara

59'

S. Ylatupa↳ A. Olusanya

61'

A. Sabriye← A. Magashy

67'

Y. Adjoumani← T. Johansson

74'

A. Djoro← S. Ylatupa

79'

J. Hopcutt← K. Jawla

79'

A. Sporrong← A. Bonnah

82'

M. Stolt← A. Olusanya

90+1'

Camil Jebara

90+1'

Simon Marklund

90'

S. Anyanwu←

90'

M. Oluwayemi← N. Perry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarOstersunds

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots8

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.90

1Corners8

18Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target3

1Off Target1

3Blocked4

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

392Total Passes538

343Accurate Passes467

88%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides0