Ostersunds FK 2–3 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Goteborg

7/11/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 10Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ostersunds FK38%

×Draw25%

IFK Goteborg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.40

Ostersunds FK

1.42

IFK Goteborg

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 127 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.50

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.30

IFK Goteborg

1.29

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.50

IFK Goteborg

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

63%

Ostersunds FK or IFK Goteborg

75%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

62%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

18%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

76%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

41%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

17%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

75%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

41%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

51%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

38%

level

25%

IFK Goteborg scores more

37%

Ostersunds FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff