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IFK Goteborg vs Ostersunds FK — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
8/6/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

IFK Goteborg49%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.02

IFK Goteborg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 60 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.28
Ostersunds FK
0.85

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.20
Ostersunds FK
1.77

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
75%
IFK Goteborg or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
51%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
25%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
78%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
45%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
20%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
64%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
27%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
66%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
49%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
25%

IFK Goteborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Ostersunds FK

IFK Goteborg and Ostersunds FK drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on August 6, 2020.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.