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IFK Goteborg vs Ostersunds FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
2/21/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg46%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.46
Ostersunds FK
1.08

IFK Goteborg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Ostersunds FK
1.31

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Ostersunds FK
1.06

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
72%
IFK Goteborg or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
54%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
22%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
77%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
43%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
18%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
66%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
29%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
62%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
46%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
28%

IFK Goteborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Ostersunds FK

IFK Goteborg and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi.