Ostersunds FK 2–3 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

M. Stolt 16'

C. Amatkarijo 6'

R. Omorowa 90+8'

T. Bergvall 77'

G. Magnusson 10'

8/20/2022

Superettan · Round 20Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ostersunds FK41%

×Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.44

Ostersunds FK

1.60

IF Brommapojkarna

1.44

Ostersunds FK creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

1.50

1.38

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.57

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.38

IF Brommapojkarna

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

66%

Ostersunds FK or IF Brommapojkarna

76%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

59%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

21%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

80%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

47%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

22%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

76%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

42%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

55%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.50 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

41%

level

24%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

34%

Ostersunds FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

10'

16'

23'

25'

58'

63'

66'

T. Bergvall← M. Jelassi

66'

R. Omorowa← N. Maripuu

66'

L. Bergvall← N. Vasic

77'

Andrew Mills

77'

T. Bergvall

79'

Lucas Bergvall

81'

E. Sivertsen← Y. Adjoumani

81'

M. Sinyan← Erick Brendon

90+3'

R. Frej← O. Krusnell

90+8'

R. Omorowa

Ostersunds4-4-2

IF4-3-3

7

Pettersso

11

▼

Jelassi

19

▼

Vasic

22

Odefalk

15

Holm

6

⚽

Magnusson

8

▼

Maripuu

3

Abrahamss

4

Sögaard

5

▼

Krusnell

1

Olsson

30

Mills

21

▼

12

5

18

26

⚽

Amatkarij

8

▼

Brendon

2

Weilid

13

Fritzson

17

⚽

▼

Stolt

28

▼

Adjoumani

Manager: M. Powell

58'▲S. Zekovic←▼M. Stolt

63'▲H. Bellman←▼S. Kroon

81'▲E. Sivertsen←▼Y. Adjoumani

81'▲M. Sinyan←▼Erick Brendon

Ostersunds FK substitutes

10Zekovic11Bellman16Sivertsen25Sinyan1Keita4Amoran29Grach

Manager: C. Mattiasson

66'▲T. Bergvall←▼M. Jelassi

66'▲R. Omorowa←▼N. Maripuu

66'▲L. Bergvall←▼N. Vasic

90+3'▲R. Frej←▼O. Krusnell

IF Brommapojkarna substitutes

12Bergvall16Omorowa26Bergvall18Frej20Lundin27Jemal21Hellquist

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna

IF Brommapojkarna beat Ostersunds FK 3-2 in Superettan on August 20, 2022.

Goals: C. Amatkarijo (6'), G. Magnusson (10'), M. Stolt (16'), T. Bergvall (77'), R. Omorowa (90+8').

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.

Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna