IF Brommapojkarna 2–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ostersunds FK

R. Frej 70'

S. Leach Holm 15'

M. Stolt 12'

8/18/2021

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGrimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna34%

×Draw27%

Ostersunds FK39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.31

IF Brommapojkarna

1.22

Ostersunds FK

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.31

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.38

Ostersunds FK

1.31

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.31

Ostersunds FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

61%

IF Brommapojkarna or Ostersunds FK

73%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

66%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

15%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

70%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

34%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

12%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

73%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

38%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

47%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.38 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

34%

level

27%

Ostersunds FK scores more

39%

Ostersunds FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Stolt

15'

S. Leach Holm

52'

J. Sellars← Ahmed Awad

62'

P. Kpozo← F. Hörberg

62'

S. Karlsson← B. Turgott

67'

G. Sandberg-Magnusson← C. Gustafsson

67'

M. Cosic← S. Helg

70'

R. Frej

73'

N. Dosis← C. Colkett

79'

M. Jelassi← R. Deprem

90'

M. Falkeborn← J. Kanga

IF

Ostersunds

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Mattiasson

67'▲G. Sandberg-Magnusson←▼C. Gustafsson

67'▲M. Cosic←▼S. Helg

79'▲M. Jelassi←▼R. Deprem

90'▲M. Falkeborn←▼J. Kanga

IF Brommapojkarna substitutes

Sandberg-MagnussonCosicJelassiFalkebornNyströmZlotnikOlsson

Manager: A. Azrafshan

52'▲J. Sellars←▼Ahmed Awad

62'▲P. Kpozo←▼F. Hörberg

62'▲S. Karlsson←▼B. Turgott

73'▲N. Dosis←▼C. Colkett

Ostersunds FK substitutes

SellarsKpozoKarlssonDosisKeitaWeymans