IF Brommapojkarna 4–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ostersunds FK

O. Pettersson 70'

S. Holm 55'

P. Amoran 48' (OG)

N. Vasic 21' (pen)

Y. Adjoumani 31'

5/19/2022

Superettan · Round 8Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna51%

×Draw24%

Ostersunds FK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.10

IF Brommapojkarna

1.69

Ostersunds FK

1.10

IF Brommapojkarna creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

1.87

creates per match

0.89

1.32

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.87

Ostersunds FK

0.89

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.32

Ostersunds FK

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

75%

IF Brommapojkarna or Ostersunds FK

76%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

49%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

28%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

82%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

50%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

24%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

67%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

30%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

67%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.87 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

51%

level

24%

Ostersunds FK scores more

25%

IF Brommapojkarna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

N. VasicPenalty

22'

Ludvig Fritzson

31'

Y. Adjoumani

43'

Cesar Weilid

48'

P. AmoranOwn goal

54'

A. Österholm← Y. Adjoumani

55'

S. Holm

61'

A. Abrahamsson← O. Krusnell

64'

N. Dosis← C. Weilid

64'

J. Attah Kadiri← S. Kroon

70'

O. Pettersson

71'

P. Hellquist← N. Vasic

71'

W. Odefalk← O. Pettersson

71'

M. Sinyan← C. Amatkarijo

71'

Z. Ghanoum← L. Fritzson

83'

H. Rashidi← M. Jelassi

84'

Jordan Attah Kadiri

84'

A. Almqvist← M. Ćosić

Statistics

IFOstersunds

Overview

1Corners5

Discipline

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0