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Osters IF vs Orebro SK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
2/21/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Osters IF50%
×Draw22%
Orebro SK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.97
Orebro SK
1.43

Osters IF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Osters IF
2.80
Orebro SK
1.85

allows per match

Osters IF
1.00
Orebro SK
1.15

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
72%
Osters IF or Orebro SK
78%
Draw or Orebro SK
50%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
29%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
86%
Osters IF 2+ goals
58%
Osters IF 3+ goals
31%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
76%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
42%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
64%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.80 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.97

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Osters IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osters IF scores more
50%
level
22%
Orebro SK scores more
28%

Osters IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osters IF vs Orebro SK

Osters IF and Orebro SK drew 3-3 in Svenska Cupen on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Visma Arena.