Orebro SK 0–1 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Osters IF

10/27/2024

Superettan · Round 28Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Orebro SK40%

×Draw27%

Osters IF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Orebro SK

1.36

Osters IF

1.21

Orebro SK creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 112 away

1.36

creates per match

1.35

1.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.36

Osters IF

1.35

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.07

Osters IF

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

67%

Orebro SK or Osters IF

73%

Draw or Osters IF

60%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

19%

Osters IF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

74%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

39%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

16%

Osters IF 1+ goals

70%

Osters IF 2+ goals

34%

Osters IF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

55%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Osters IF attack 1.35 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orebro SK scores more

40%

level

27%

Osters IF scores more

33%

Orebro SK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff