Osters IF 3–0 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Orebro SK

10/7/2023

Superettan · Round 26Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Osters IF52%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Osters IF

1.71

Orebro SK

1.08

Osters IF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 68 away

1.63

creates per match

1.09

1.07

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Osters IF

1.63

Orebro SK

1.09

allows per match

Osters IF

1.07

Orebro SK

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

76%

Osters IF or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

48%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

28%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

82%

Osters IF 2+ goals

51%

Osters IF 3+ goals

24%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

66%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

29%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

68%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Osters IF scores more

52%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

24%

Osters IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff