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Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF — Allsvenskan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
7/5/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osters IF28%
×Draw26%
Mjallby AIF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.08
Mjallby AIF
1.48

Mjallby AIF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 97 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.06
Mjallby AIF
1.33

allows per match

Osters IF
1.63
Mjallby AIF
1.11

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
54%
Osters IF or Mjallby AIF
74%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
72%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
11%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
66%
Osters IF 2+ goals
29%
Osters IF 3+ goals
10%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
77%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
43%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
37%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.06 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osters IF scores more
28%
level
26%
Mjallby AIF scores more
46%

Mjallby AIF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Osters IF 0–1 Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Osters IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.