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Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
10/5/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 27Strandvallen (Sölvesborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mjallby AIF45%
×Draw26%
Osters IF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.48
Osters IF
1.14

Mjallby AIF creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.60
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.93
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
71%
Mjallby AIF or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
55%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
22%
Osters IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
77%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
43%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
19%
Osters IF 1+ goals
68%
Osters IF 2+ goals
32%
Osters IF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
61%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.60 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Osters IF attack 1.35 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
45%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
29%

Mjallby AIF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Osters IF

Mjallby AIF beat Osters IF 3-2 in Superettan on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Strandvallen (Sölvesborg).