Osters IF 0–2 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malmo FF

S. Haksabanovic 67'

O. Rosengren 24'

7/19/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 16Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osters IF26%

×Draw25%

Malmo FF49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.63

Osters IF

1.11

Malmo FF

1.63

Malmo FF creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 127 away

1.06

creates per match

1.63

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Osters IF

1.06

Malmo FF

1.63

allows per match

Osters IF

1.63

Malmo FF

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

51%

Osters IF or Malmo FF

75%

Draw or Malmo FF

74%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

10%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

67%

Osters IF 2+ goals

30%

Osters IF 3+ goals

10%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

80%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

48%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

34%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.06 + Malmo FF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Malmo FF attack 1.63 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Osters IF scores more

26%

level

25%

Malmo FF scores more

49%

Malmo FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

O. Rosengren

Malmo FF · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

O. Rosengren↳ D. T. Gudjohnsen

38'

Otto Rosengren

46'

T. Ali← D. T. Gudjohnsen

60'

R. Adjei← T. Varmanen

60'

N. Zatterstrom← A. Djuric

61'

O. Berg← K. Busuladzic

67'

S. Haksabanovic↳ O. Rosengren

75'

J. Voelkerling Persson← O. Uddenas

77'

A. Sigurdsson← S. Haksabanovic

88'

E. Ekong← H. Bolin

90+5'

M. Tamminen← P. Sejdiu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersMalmo

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots13

1.90Expected Goals (xG)1.56

1Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots13

1On Target5

10Off Target4

1Blocked4

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

340Total Passes613

266Accurate Passes536

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0