Malmo FF 2–0 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Osters IF

I. Kiese 46'

H. Bolin 32'

4/29/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 6Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Malmo FF62%

×Draw22%

Osters IF16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.84

Malmo FF

1.90

Osters IF

0.84

Malmo FF creates 126% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 16 away

2.17

creates per match

0.88

0.80

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.17

Osters IF

0.88

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.80

Osters IF

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

84%

Malmo FF or Osters IF

78%

Draw or Osters IF

38%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

37%

Osters IF wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

85%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

56%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

29%

Osters IF 1+ goals

57%

Osters IF 2+ goals

21%

Osters IF 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

80%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.17 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.90

Osters IF attack 0.88 + Malmo FF defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malmo FF scores more

62%

level

22%

Osters IF scores more

16%

Malmo FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

H. Bolin

Malmo FF · M

9.2

Match Events

32'

H. Bolin↳ O. Rosengren

38'

Colin Rösler

46'

I. Kiese↳ H. Bolin

56'

V. Rodic← M. Tamminen

57'

Nils Zätterström

58'

R. Adjei← T. Varmanen

61'

Kingsley Gyamfi

67'

E. Botheim← I. Kiese

67'

T. Ali← E. Ekong

77'

N. Soderberg← I. Kricak

77'

D. Olsson← L. Bergquist

83'

Daniel Ljung

83'

A. Skogmar← O. Rosengren

89'

D. T. Gudjohnsen← O. Berg

90+5'

Jens Stryger Larsen

90+5'

Youssoupha Sanyang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalmoOsters

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots6

2.19Expected Goals (xG)0.28

7Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots6

4On Target1

8Off Target1

6Blocked4

9Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

434Total Passes402

374Accurate Passes328

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1