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Malmo FF vs Osters IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
2 – 2
Osters IF
Osters IF
Taha Abdi Ali 69'
Anders Christiansen 22'
Jesper Jonasson Westermark 73'
Adam Herdonsson 19'
3/18/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malmo FF43%
×Draw24%
Osters IF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.59
Osters IF
1.37

Malmo FF creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
1.18
Osters IF
1.56

allows per match

Malmo FF
1.18
Osters IF
2.00

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
67%
Malmo FF or Osters IF
76%
Draw or Osters IF
57%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
21%
Osters IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
80%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
47%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
21%
Osters IF 1+ goals
75%
Osters IF 2+ goals
40%
Osters IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
56%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.18 + Osters IF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Osters IF attack 1.56 + Malmo FF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malmo FF scores more
43%
level
24%
Osters IF scores more
33%

Malmo FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Adam Herdonsson
22'
Anders Christiansen
69'
Taha Abdi Ali
73'
Jesper Jonasson Westermark
Malmo
Osters
H. Rydström
Manager: H. Rydström
S. Tufegdzic
Manager: S. Tufegdzic

Friendlies Clubs: Malmo FF 2–2 Osters IF

Malmo FF and Osters IF drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 18, 2023.

Goals: Adam Herdonsson (19'), Anders Christiansen (22'), Taha Abdi Ali (69'), Jesper Jonasson Westermark (73').

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.