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Osters IF vs IK brage — Superettan 2024

Osters IF
Osters IF
Preview
15:00
IK brage
IK brage
7/18/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Spiris Arena
Big match
48%
Osters IF
model favours
48%25%28%

Osters IF score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Osters IF48%
×Draw25%
IK brage28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.63
IK brage
1.18

Osters IF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

creates per match

Osters IF
2.00
IK brage
1.27

allows per match

Osters IF
1.09
IK brage
1.25

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
72%
Osters IF or IK brage
75%
Draw or IK brage
52%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
25%
IK brage wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
80%
Osters IF 2+ goals
48%
Osters IF 3+ goals
22%
IK brage 1+ goals
69%
IK brage 2+ goals
33%
IK brage 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
63%
IK brage (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.00 + IK brage defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

IK brage attack 1.27 + Osters IF defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osters IF scores more
48%
level
25%
IK brage scores more
28%

Osters IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (90% and 80% over 2.5)
  • 90% of Osters IF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • IK brage score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of IK brage’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • IK brage raise their game against the top half — 35% wins vs the upper half, only 31% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in 70% of IK brage’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
IF
LLLWW
brage
LWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Osters IF vs IK brage — Match Preview

Osters IF face IK brage on July 18, 2026 in this Superettan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Osters IF host IK brage at Spiris Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.