Osters IF 4–1 IK brage: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IK brage

A. Shakir 87'

F. Olsson 58', 56', 48'

F. Trpcevski 62'

2/28/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Osters IF52%

×Draw21%

IK brage26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.42

Osters IF

2.06

IK brage

1.42

Osters IF creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

2.80

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Osters IF

2.80

IK brage

1.83

allows per match

Osters IF

1.00

IK brage

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IK brage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

74%

Osters IF or IK brage

79%

Draw or IK brage

48%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

31%

IK brage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

87%

Osters IF 2+ goals

61%

Osters IF 3+ goals

34%

IK brage 1+ goals

76%

IK brage 2+ goals

41%

IK brage 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

66%

IK brage (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.80 + IK brage defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

IK brage attack 1.83 + Osters IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Osters IF scores more

52%

level

21%

IK brage scores more

26%

Osters IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

P. Jonsson

29'

L. Carlstrand

48'

F. Olsson

55'

N. Astrand John← M. Persson

56'

F. Trpcevski← J. Skille

56'

A. Mortensen← G. Nordh

56'

58'

59'

62'

63'

G. Granstrom← A. Sporrong

65'

T. Stagaard

67'

J. Voelkerling Persson← L. Carlstrand

70'

80'

81'

84'

87'

89'

Osters

IK

1

Frodig

4

▼

Persson

5

Konjuhi

8

▼

Sporrong

10

Berggren

14

▼

Skille

17

▼

Jonsson

19

Brkic

20

▼

21

22

32

2

4

5

8

9

▼

Carlstran

10

Uddenas

11

⚽3

▼

Olsson

16

▼

Adjei

19

▼

Tamminen

26

Christens

Manager: Roberth Bjorknesjo

59'▲D. Olsson←▼R. Adjei

67'▲J. Voelkerling Persson←▼L. Carlstrand

80'▲A. Shakir←▼F. Olsson

81'▲M. Njie←▼M. Tamminen

Osters IF substitutes

12Pihlblad36Hartmann3Gyamfi7Kouakou14Olsson18Njie21Lind24Shakir35Persson

Manager: Anders Baath-Sjoblom

55'▲N. Astrand John←▼M. Persson

56'▲F. Trpcevski←▼J. Skille

56'▲A. Mortensen←▼G. Nordh

63'▲G. Granstrom←▼A. Sporrong

84'▲O. Stark←▼P. Jonsson

IK brage substitutes

9Trpcevski12Mortensen13Guadagno15Stark23John28Granstrom25Hellblom

Svenska Cupen: Osters IF 4–1 IK brage

Osters IF beat IK brage 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2026.

Goals: F. Olsson (48', 56', 58'), F. Trpcevski (62'), A. Shakir (87').

The match was played at Visma Arena.

Osters IF vs IK brage — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Svenska Cupen: Osters IF 4–1 IK brage