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IK brage vs Osters IF — Superettan 2018

IK brage
IK brage
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
C. Redenstrand 35'
J. Westermark 90+4'
M. Kusu 32'
7/23/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

IK brage41%
×Draw25%
Osters IF34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.49
Osters IF
1.35

IK brage creates 10% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 112 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
66%
IK brage or Osters IF
75%
Draw or Osters IF
59%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
20%
Osters IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
77%
IK brage 2+ goals
44%
IK brage 3+ goals
19%
Osters IF 1+ goals
74%
Osters IF 2+ goals
39%
Osters IF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
54%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Osters IF attack 1.35 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IK brage scores more
41%
level
25%
Osters IF scores more
34%

IK brage at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
M. Kusu
35'
C. Redenstrand
52'
Alexander Zetterstrom
55'
Henry Sletsjoe
69'
J. Arvidsson← G. Berggren
69'
P. Jonsson← S. Izountouemoi
75'
D. Kozica← N. Söderberg
75'
A. Hauksson← A. Wiberg
81'
I. Magnusson← V. Rodić
87'
Jacob Stensson
87'
M. Persson← C. Redenstrand
87'
K. Appiah Nyarko← E. Tot Wikström
89'
Isak Magnusson
90+5'
M. Berg← D. Ljung
90+4'
J. Westermark

Possession

47%IK

Shots

8IK

Statistics

IKOsters
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots9
3Corners9
6Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target4
3Off Target3
2Blocked2
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Superettan: IK brage 1–2 Osters IF

Osters IF beat IK brage 2-1 in Superettan on July 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Kusu (32'), C. Redenstrand (35'), J. Westermark (90+4').

Osters IF controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.