Osters IF 1–0 IK brage: Result & Stats | Superettan

Osters IF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

IK brage

J. Westermark 13'

10/29/2023

Superettan · Round 28Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Osters IF45%

×Draw25%

IK brage30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.19

Osters IF

1.53

IK brage

1.19

Osters IF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 127 away

1.63

creates per match

1.30

1.07

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Osters IF

1.63

IK brage

1.30

allows per match

Osters IF

1.07

IK brage

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IK brage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

70%

Osters IF or IK brage

75%

Draw or IK brage

55%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

23%

IK brage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

78%

Osters IF 2+ goals

45%

Osters IF 3+ goals

20%

IK brage 1+ goals

70%

IK brage 2+ goals

33%

IK brage 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

60%

IK brage (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

IK brage attack 1.30 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osters IF scores more

45%

level

25%

IK brage scores more

30%

Osters IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Adil Titi

13'

J. Westermark

46'

J. Arvidsson← K. Appiah Nyarko

46'

S. Izountouemoi← A. Titi

59'

A. Hauksson← A. Yakoub

66'

78'

79'

80'

82'

F. Sjöberg← G. Berggren

88'

I. Magnusson← Þ. Þórisson

89'

N. Söderberg← A. Mörfelt

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OstersIK

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots11

4Corners7

14Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target1

4Off Target7

2Blocked3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IK brage

Osters IF beat IK brage 1-0 in Superettan on October 29, 2023.

Goals: J. Westermark (13').

Osters IF controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.

Osters IF vs IK brage — Superettan 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IK brage