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Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
A. Aliev 10' (pen)
A. Jakobsen 46'
8/10/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Osters IF34%
×Draw24%
IF Brommapojkarna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.61

IF Brommapojkarna creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.35

allows per match

Osters IF
1.88
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

finishing

Osters IF-0.64scores less
IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
58%
Osters IF or IF Brommapojkarna
76%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
66%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
15%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
76%
Osters IF 2+ goals
41%
Osters IF 3+ goals
17%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
80%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
48%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
45%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.88 · 9 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.42 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + Osters IF defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osters IF scores more
34%
level
24%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
42%

IF Brommapojkarna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. JakobsenIF BrommapojkarnaIF Brommapojkarna · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
A. AlievPenalty
16'
Eric Björkander
37'
Oskar Cotton
46'
E. Alladoh← A. Kurochkin
46'
A. Jakobsen↳ K. Barslund
51'
Kevin Ackermann
54'
Ezekiel Alladoh
58'
M. Christensen← D. Ask
61'
O. Uddenas← P. Sejdiu
61'
M. Tamminen← V. Rodic
70'
N. Soderberg← D. Ljung
70'
J. Voelkerling Persson← A. Aliev
75'
I. Camara← K. Barslund
81'
Issiaga Camara
82'
D. Olsson← L. Bergquist
86'
R. Orqvist← W. Odefalk
89'
Anssi Suhonen

Possession

39%Osters

Shots

8Osters

Pass accuracy

47%Osters

Statistics

OstersIF
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots10
1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.12
3Corners1
14Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target1
4Off Target6
2Blocked3
4Inside Box4
4Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
354Total Passes555
266Accurate Passes474
75%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls14
1Yellow Cards5
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna

Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on August 10, 2025.

Goals: A. Aliev (10' pen), A. Jakobsen (46').

IF Brommapojkarna controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.