Osters IF 4–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

J. Westermark 55', 46', 16'

J. Drott 9'

L. Bergvall 90+2'

10/4/2022

Superettan · Round 25Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Osters IF46%

×Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

Osters IF

1.65

IF Brommapojkarna

1.29

Osters IF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

1.52

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Osters IF

1.68

IF Brommapojkarna

1.52

allows per match

Osters IF

1.07

IF Brommapojkarna

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

70%

Osters IF or IF Brommapojkarna

76%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

54%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

24%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

81%

Osters IF 2+ goals

49%

Osters IF 3+ goals

23%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

72%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

37%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

60%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.52 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Osters IF scores more

46%

level

24%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

30%

Osters IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

16'

21'

21'

46'

55'

59'

T. Söderström← M. Ćosić

59'

T. Bergvall← M. Jelassi

62'

E. Engqvist← M. Kusu

66'

P. Hellquist← N. Vasic

70'

A. Hauksson← M. Sørensen

72'

Gustav Sandberg Magnusson

79'

A. Bonnah← J. Drott

79'

A. Zahirovic← D. Kozica

79'

A. Gustafson← J. Westermark

82'

R. Omorowa← O. Pettersson

82'

L. Bergvall← O. Krusnell

85'

Alen Zahirovic

90+3'

Lucas Bergvall

90+2'

L. Bergvall

Osters4-2-3-1

IF4-3-3

7

▼

Pettersso

11

▼

Jelassi

9

▼

Vasic

22

Odefalk

15

Holm

10

▼

6

14

4

5

▼

1

25

2

33

4

3

18

⚽

▼

Drott

9

▼

Sørensen

7

▼

Kozica

22

▼

Kusu

23

Rodić

10

⚽3

▼

Westermar

Manager: S. Tufegdzic

62'▲E. Engqvist←▼M. Kusu

70'▲A. Hauksson←▼M. Sørensen

79'▲A. Bonnah←▼J. Drott

79'▲A. Zahirovic←▼D. Kozica

79'▲A. Gustafson←▼J. Westermark

Osters IF substitutes

15Engqvist8Hauksson11Bonnah20Zahirovic26Gustafson12Štulić14Silverholt

Manager: C. Mattiasson

59'▲T. Söderström←▼M. Ćosić

59'▲T. Bergvall←▼M. Jelassi

66'▲P. Hellquist←▼N. Vasic

82'▲R. Omorowa←▼O. Pettersson

82'▲L. Bergvall←▼O. Krusnell

IF Brommapojkarna substitutes

23Söderström24Bergvall21Hellquist19Omorowa26Bergvall8Maripuu20Lundin

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna

Osters IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 4-1 in Superettan on October 4, 2022.

Goals: J. Drott (9'), J. Westermark (16', 46', 55'), L. Bergvall (90+2').

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.

Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IF Brommapojkarna