IF Brommapojkarna 2–0 Osters IF: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Osters IF

V. Lind 78'

A. Jakobsen 62'

7/13/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 15Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna43%

×Draw25%

Osters IF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

Osters IF

1.23

IF Brommapojkarna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

1.53

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.24

Osters IF

0.93

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.53

Osters IF

1.77

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.12scores more

Osters IF-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

69%

IF Brommapojkarna or Osters IF

75%

Draw or Osters IF

57%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

21%

Osters IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

78%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

44%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

19%

Osters IF 1+ goals

71%

Osters IF 2+ goals

35%

Osters IF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

58%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 25 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.24 + Osters IF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Osters IF attack 0.93 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

43%

level

25%

Osters IF scores more

31%

IF Brommapojkarna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Lind

IF Brommapojkarna · M

8.3

Match Events

34'

Tatu Varmanen

46'

A. Aliev← T. Varmanen

48'

Daniel Ask

62'

V. Rodic← P. Sejdiu

62'

A. Jakobsen↳ E. Hovland

69'

Victor Lind

69'

L. Arrhov← D. Irandust

73'

Lukas Bergquist

75'

M. Tamminen← O. Uddenas

78'

V. Lind↳ L. Arrhov

80'

Mattis Adolfsson

81'

W. Odefalk← K. Ackermann

85'

O. Cotton← A. Jakobsen

86'

Oliver Zandén

86'

D. Olsson← J. Voelkerling Persson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFOsters

Overview

42%Possession58%

18Total Shots9

1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.85

12Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots9

8On Target3

8Off Target3

2Blocked3

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

351Total Passes505

295Accurate Passes433

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0