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Osters IF vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
5/4/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 7Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osters IF30%
×Draw25%
Hammarby FF45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.20
Hammarby FF
1.54

Hammarby FF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 126 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.06
Hammarby FF
1.45

allows per match

Osters IF
1.63
Hammarby FF
1.33

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
55%
Osters IF or Hammarby FF
75%
Draw or Hammarby FF
70%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
12%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
70%
Osters IF 2+ goals
34%
Osters IF 3+ goals
12%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
79%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
45%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
40%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.06 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osters IF scores more
30%
level
25%
Hammarby FF scores more
45%

Hammarby FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Osters IF 0–3 Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.