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Hammarby FF vs Osters IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
8/31/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 223Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hammarby FF60%
×Draw22%
Osters IF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.94
Osters IF
0.95

Hammarby FF creates 104% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
2.25
Osters IF
0.88

allows per match

Hammarby FF
1.01
Osters IF
1.63

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
82%
Hammarby FF or Osters IF
78%
Draw or Osters IF
40%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
36%
Osters IF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
86%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
58%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
30%
Osters IF 1+ goals
61%
Osters IF 2+ goals
25%
Osters IF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
77%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Osters IF attack 0.88 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
60%
level
22%
Osters IF scores more
18%

Hammarby FF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 4–0 Osters IF

Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 4-0 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.