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Hammarby FF vs Osters IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
3/7/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 33Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hammarby FF62%
×Draw19%
Osters IF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.31
Osters IF
1.18

Hammarby FF creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
3.05
Osters IF
1.57

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
Osters IF
1.57

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
82%
Hammarby FF or Osters IF
81%
Draw or Osters IF
38%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
40%
Osters IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
90%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
67%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
40%
Osters IF 1+ goals
69%
Osters IF 2+ goals
33%
Osters IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
77%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.31

Osters IF attack 1.57 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
62%
level
19%
Osters IF scores more
18%

Hammarby FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Hammarby FF 7–0 Osters IF

Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 7-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.