Osters IF 3–2 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

J. Westermark 69'

M. Sørensen 29' (pen)

V. Rodić 11'

A. Muhsin 86' (pen)

A. Mammar 68'

7/26/2022

Superettan · Round 15Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Osters IF51%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Osters IF

1.61

AFC Eskilstuna

1.04

Osters IF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 75 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Osters IF

1.63

AFC Eskilstuna

1.00

allows per match

Osters IF

1.07

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

75%

Osters IF or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

49%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

27%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

80%

Osters IF 2+ goals

48%

Osters IF 3+ goals

22%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

65%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

28%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

67%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Osters IF scores more

51%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

25%

Osters IF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Rodić

19'

Oliver Silverholt

29'

M. SørensenPenalty

33'

Felix Michel

61'

S. Maarouf← V. Götesson

62'

A. Coffey← A. Hudu

62'

I. Shamoun← Y. Rafael

68'

69'

83'

83'

83'

L. Sabah← R. Williams

84'

Adam Bergmark Wiberg

86'

John Stenberg

86'

R. Åstedt← A. Ekeroth

86'

A. MuhsinPenalty

88'

I. Magnusson← A. Wiberg

89'

90+4'

90+3'

90+4'

90'

A. Herdonsson← D. Kozica

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OstersAFC

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots11

8Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0